Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1342…8c75 crypto 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$43 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%100W / 8L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$1
14 days+$23
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$35
other 32% −$18
tech 6% −$4
sports 5% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 3% -9.6%
≤30d 107 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 108 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 6% -8.9%
all 108 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses100 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)108 / 143
History coverage32d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No 98¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 94¢ 99¢ $37 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+4%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? No 94¢ 90¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 93¢ 89¢ $37 $36 −$2 (-4%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 95¢ 86¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $38 −$21 -56%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 20 $54 +$1 +2%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $23 −$12 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 43¢ $17 8m
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 94¢ $38 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $38 5h
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $4 8h
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $15 8h
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $20 8h
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? SELL No 99¢ $5 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $40 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $40 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $35 15h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 16h
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 17h
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $15 21h
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close SELL No 100¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 21h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $11 21h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $10 22h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $29 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 90¢ $36 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 30h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $18 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $18 35h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on I BUY No 100¢ $40 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $39 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $38 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,035.70 · official $1,035.70 (match) · 351 history records