Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1342…7dde sports 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$109 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%109W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$669
7 days−$203
14 days−$203
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$62
other 32% −$34
world 1% −$4
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -16.7% -24.6% 32% 30% -19.0%
≤30d 136 -16.7% -24.6% 32% 30% -19.0%
≤90d 237 -5.6% -14.6% 29% 28% -17.7%
all 347 +4.8% -5.2% 31% 31% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 31% -11.1%
10% -14.3% 30% -19.6%
15% -22.6% 30% -27.4%
20% -30.2% 29% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$12 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses109 / 238
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)347 / 354
History coverage108d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 36¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $19 +$40 +204%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $36 +$45 +125%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $27 +$39 +146%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$46 +226%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$13 +88%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$28 +91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $16 +$15 +91%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $31 +$14 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Sangal ALTERS - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $21 32m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 41¢ $9 46m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 100¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 61¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 19¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 24¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 33¢ $10 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $80 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $19 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $59 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 27¢ $16 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $6 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $16 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $10 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $10 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $67 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $5 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $15 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 41¢ $19 9h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 17¢ $12 10h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner BUY Coalesce 6¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.98 · official $47.55 · 837 history records