Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x133d…4ff1 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-27%) realized −$211 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$129
sports 40% −$62
world 7% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.5% -39.8% 45% 45% -44.5%
≤30d 11 -33.5% -39.8% 45% 45% -44.5%
≤90d 11 -33.5% -39.8% 45% 45% -44.5%
all 11 -33.5% -39.8% 45% 45% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 45% -44.5%
10% -45.6% 45% -49.8%
15% -50.8% 36% -54.7%
20% -55.6% 9% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$61 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $53 +$42 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$20 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 +$23 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $52 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $52 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $52 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $53 21h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $53 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $105 4d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.85 · official $148.85 (match) · 24 history records