Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x133d…17ea crypto 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$294 (+16%) realized +$295 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%129W / 118L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$276
14 days+$280
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$290
other 2% −$1
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 52% +4.8%
≤30d 247 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 52% +4.9%
≤90d 247 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 52% +4.9%
all 247 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 52% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 52% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 51% -5.2%
15% -23.8% 51% -14.3%
20% -31.3% 51% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$295
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses129 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)247 / 249
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.04 · official $26.04 (match) · 515 history records