Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x133b…2f22 politics 71 markets active 5h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d only
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77,121 (+71%) realized +$70,010 · open +$7,111
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate78%51W / 14L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,519per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$42,700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$44,662
sports 15% −$433
other 11% +$292
economics 9% +$100
culture 5% +$2,635
world 1% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +64.2% +48.6% 67% 33% -7.1%
≤90d 10 +87.8% +69.9% 70% 30% -9.0%
all 65 +46.8% +32.8% 78% 15% +35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.8% 15% +35.9%
10% ← realistic here +20.1% 12% +22.9%
15% +8.5% 9% +11.0%
20% -2.2% 9% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,220) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
36.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$804 vs −$57 · ×14.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.3 per $1 lost it wins $51.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$42,700
Realized+$70,010
Unrealized+$7,111
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses51 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions6
Markets (closed)65 / 71
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$1,519
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $14,912 $19,257 +$4,345 (+29%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $7,887 $8,692 +$806 (+10%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $6,435 $7,965 +$1,530 (+24%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $4,629 $4,462 −$167 (-4%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $677 $1,198 +$522 (+77%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,050 $1,125 +$75 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $1 +$2 +290%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $550 +$13 +2%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 20 $1,496 −$56 -4%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 27 $330 +$104 +31%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 24 $1,700 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $3,236 +$83 +3%
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? Apr 11 $33 +$24 +73%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1,067 +$12 +1%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $43 $0 +1%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? Mar 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois Mar 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Jesse Jackson Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? Mar 18 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? Mar 18 $182 +$2 +1%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin Mar 18 $376 +$8 +2%
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? Mar 18 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 16 $1,220 +$20 +2%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 16 $3,900 +$2,621 +67%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Mar 14 $1,220 +$20 +2%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen Mar 13 $1,220 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 05 $4,955 +$45 +1%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? Mar 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $665 +$27 +4%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 06 $2,348 +$49 +2%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 06 $2,565 +$27 +1%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 06 $3,707 +$147 +4%
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election? Feb 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $9,750 +$100 +1%
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Jan 12 $1,373 +$14 +1%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet befor Jan 10 $2 +$36 +2420%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Jan 07 $491 −$491 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20? Jan 07 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $6,100 +$34,790 +570%
Will Tim Walz drop out by March 31? Jan 06 $311 +$3 +1%
Spread: Ole Miss (-17.5) Dec 21 $40 +$1 +3%
O/U 57.5 Dec 20 $15 $0 +1%
Memphis vs. North Carolina State: O/U 58.5 Dec 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Dec 20 $682 +$37 +5%
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: 1H Moneyline Dec 19 $990 +$10 +1%
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan Dec 19 $2,888 +$33 +1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Dec 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? Dec 07 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2025 MLS Cup? Dec 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Spread: Georgia (-2.5) Dec 07 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $4,965 +$50 +1%
Inter Miami CF vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 07 $8,005 +$81 +1%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $1,860 +$78 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $160 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $9 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $14 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,700.20 · official $42,720.23 (match) · 3500 history records