Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

13 0x133b…2794 crypto 21 markets active 4h ago coverage 34d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$26 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate37%7W / 12L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$789per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$8

14 days−$21

30 days−$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-66.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	16	-56.2%	-60.3%	44%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	19	-63.1%	-66.6%	37%	0%	-9.7%
all	19	-63.1%	-66.6%	37%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-66.6%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-69.8%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-72.7%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-75.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -63% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,064) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -78% → late -50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$2,039

Realized−$26

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)37%

Wins / losses7 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage34d

Avg bet$789

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,038	$2,034	−$4 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12?	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10?	Jun 10	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	Jun 08	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	Jun 04	$2,079	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3?	Jun 03	$2,075	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 2?	Jun 02	$2,071	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1?	Jun 02	$2,067	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1?	Jun 01	$2,064	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31?	Jun 01	$2,060	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	May 31	$2,056	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27?	May 27	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25?	May 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 23?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,038	4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$4	3d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12?	BUY No	0¢	$4	8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	BUY No	0¢	$4	12d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,079	16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,075	17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 2?	BUY No	100¢	$2,071	18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,067	18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,064	19d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$2,060	20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	BUY No	100¢	$2,056	21d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	23d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25?	BUY No	0¢	$4	25d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21?	BUY No	0¢	$4	30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	34d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,039.07 · official $2,039.07 (match) · 29 history records