Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x133a…8397 world 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,455 (-11%) realized −$1,346 · open −$2,109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%116W / 145L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$50
14 days−$1,248
30 days−$1,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$817
politics 23% −$2,185
other 20% −$488
tech 7% +$97
sports 2% +$171
economics 2% +$91
crypto 1% +$62
culture 0% −$32
finance 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.6% +10.0% 80% 40% -0.6%
≤30d 25 -37.8% -43.7% 36% 28% -35.9%
≤90d 74 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 28% -11.7%
all 261 -15.5% -23.6% 44% 31% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 31% -13.4%
10% -30.9% 25% -21.7%
15% -37.6% 20% -29.3%
20% -43.7% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$45 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$3,944
Realized−$1,346
Unrealized−$2,109
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses116 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions39
Markets (closed)261 / 300
History coverage168d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Maduro guilty of all counts? No 77¢ 86¢ $1,184 $1,328 +$144 (+12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1,974 $1,186 −$788 (-40%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $397 $296 −$101 (-25%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 48¢ 29¢ $183 $110 −$73 (-40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $129 $109 −$19 (-15%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 47¢ 16¢ $146 $52 −$94 (-65%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $680 $51 −$629 (-92%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 12¢ 3¢ $201 $49 −$152 (-75%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 29¢ 13¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 37¢ 36¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 93¢ 90¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $225 $19 −$206 (-92%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 90¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 24¢ 16¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $16 −$10 -63%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$2 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +122%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Jun 22 $361 +$5 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $92 −$52 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $1,622 −$1,179 -73%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +52%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $56 −$29 -52%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $138 +$184 +133%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 31 $179 −$179 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 31 $707 +$292 +41%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $55 −$25 -44%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? May 17 $50 −$8 -15%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed May 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 11 $376 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $10 +$14 +144%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? May 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 09 $90 +$11 +12%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $214 −$214 -100%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Apr 28 $101 −$5 -5%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Apr 24 $140 −$30 -21%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Apr 23 $69 −$26 -38%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Apr 23 $14 +$6 +41%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Apr 21 $410 +$760 +185%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 21 $37 +$32 +87%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $110 +$63 +58%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Apr 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,294 +$790 +61%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $111 +$6 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $82 1h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? BUY No 42¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 37¢ $27 41h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 44h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY Yes 51¢ $256 3d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $5 3d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 4d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 5d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $94 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,944.26 · official $3,944.26 (match) · 1317 history records