Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x1339…837f sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,023 (+58%) realized +$1,023 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%63W / 27L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1,153
crypto 23% −$129
other 2% +$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +50.6% +36.2% 100% 60% +37.6%
≤30d 10 +50.6% +36.2% 100% 60% +37.6%
≤90d 90 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 44% +43.6%
all 90 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 44% +43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 44% +43.6%
10% -18.3% 36% +29.9%
15% -26.2% 29% +17.3%
20% -33.5% 24% +5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.7 per $1 lost it wins $5.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses63 / 27
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions20
Markets (closed)90 / 110
History coverage66d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jay Clarke 51¢ 51¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Henrique Rocha 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Terence Atmane 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Zachary Svajda 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Alastair Gray 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Raul Brancaccio 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Clement Chidekh 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Kyrian Jacquet 52¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Darwin Blanch 44¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Harry Wendelken 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Nicolas Mejia 47¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jaime Faria 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Facundo Acosta 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 05 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +139%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $53 −$42 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 21 $141 −$137 -97%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO5) - VCL Spain: Rising Pha Apr 21 $1 $0 +27%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $1 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evoluti Apr 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Dark Passage (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Bi Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Watford FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 $0 +37%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +72%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Busan: Alex Bolt vs Rio Noguchi Apr 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Busan: Yunchaokete Bu vs Adam Walton Apr 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Giles Hussey Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 16 $7 +$5 +75%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 16 $11 +$6 +54%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 15 $1 $0 +4%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 14 $1 $0 +8%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $1 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $1 $0 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigers Apr 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Facundo Acosta 82¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 52¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 35¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 51¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 47¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 49¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 84¢ $1 1h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 49¢ $2 1h
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 83¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 29¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 28¢ $1 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 26¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Alastair Gray 45¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 44¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 42¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 33¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 34¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 51¢ $3 40d
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 67¢ $1 40d
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 56¢ $2 40d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 57¢ $2 40d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 53d
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 53d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.58 · official $26.58 (match) · 227 history records