Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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13 0x1333…173b sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,667 (-12%) realized −$25,673 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate19%82W / 358L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,708per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$2,594est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$10,976
other 20% +$3,044
crypto 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -99.7% -99.7% 0% 0% -75.4%
≤30d 341 -92.0% -92.8% 8% 0% -27.8%
≤90d 440 -65.6% -68.9% 19% 7% -13.7%
all 440 -65.6% -68.9% 19% 7% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.9% 7% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -71.8% 7% -22.0%
15% -74.6% 6% -29.5%
20% -77.1% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,354 vs −$337 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$25,673
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses82 / 358
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$2,594
Open positions2
Markets (closed)440 / 125
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$1,708
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 356 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $681 1h
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $999 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 8d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $285 9d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $500 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $644 16d
Athletic Club vs. Fortaleza EC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $358 17d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 94¢ $189 17d
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $47 17d
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 17d
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $45 17d
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $0 17d
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $21 18d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $55 18d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 18d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 98¢ $236 18d
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $318 18d
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 23d
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 23d
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $60 23d
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. FC Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $115 24d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 24d
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $174 24d
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $24 24d
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3 24d
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $76 24d
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $122 24d
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.00 · official $146.00 (match) · 3500 history records