Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x1332…c5c1 politics 146 markets active 1d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$9
other 34% −$6
sports 9% +$34
crypto 6% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 134 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 4% -9.3%
all 146 +0.1% -9.4% 8% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 6% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×12.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 134
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage110d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $135 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $125 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $341 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $376 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $249 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 35h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 46h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $137 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $137 23d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 24d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $125 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $125 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 24d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $133 25d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $133 26d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $135 26d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $135 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records