Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x1331…b5b0 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 214d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$6
other 34% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 83% 83% +8.6%
≤30d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 83% 83% +8.6%
≤90d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 83% 83% +8.6%
all 9 -13.2% -21.4% 56% 56% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 56% -9.1%
10% -29.0% 44% -17.8%
15% -35.8% 33% -25.7%
20% -42.1% 22% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage214d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.15 · official $25.15 (match) · 17 history records