Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x132f…453b other 24 markets active 8h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$309,216 (+58%) realized +$307,718 · open +$1,498
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$22,295per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$3,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252,146
7 days+$244,792
14 days+$264,442
30 days+$297,489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$254,798
sports 7% +$44,157
crypto 0% +$34
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.1% -13.3% 46% 46% +37.0%
≤30d 22 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 45% +41.0%
≤90d 22 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 45% +41.0%
all 22 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 45% +41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 45% +41.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 45% +27.5%
15% -22.4% 45% +15.2%
20% -30.0% 36% +3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$19,581) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30,606 vs −$3,562 · ×8.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.59 per $1 lost it wins $8.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,325
Realized+$307,718
Unrealized+$1,498
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage20d
Avg bet$22,295
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $1,808 $3,307 +$1,499 (+83%)
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? Yes $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301,257 +$204,940 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $106,492 +$47,206 +44%
Will "Banana" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina Jun 22 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27,945 −$18,929 -68%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $505 −$496 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $952 −$928 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,369 +$7,631 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4,654 −$4,652 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,177 −$3,120 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21,888 +$14,759 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,939 +$2,087 +108%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,900 −$1,876 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,976 −$1,929 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19,581 +$8,941 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,073 −$3,000 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,053 +$2,852 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,980 −$1,951 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,093 −$1,093 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,880 +$15,075 +256%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,216 −$1,206 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,191 +$34 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $19,998 +$33,047 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? BUY Yes $20 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $500 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $500 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $95 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $190 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $300 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $500 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $121,741 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $87 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $141 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $250 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $872 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $69 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $250 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $76 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $89 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $83 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $6,562 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $200 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $80 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $300 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $200 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $200 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,324.94 · official $3,321.00 (match) · 286 history records