Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x132d…67cc crypto 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%113W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$79
other 30% −$57
world 6% +$107
weather 4% −$11
politics 1% $0
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.5% -0.0% 40% 40% +0.9%
≤30d 6 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 50% +5.3%
≤90d 229 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 44% -21.7%
all 239 -11.0% -19.5% 47% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -11.3%
10% -27.2% 39% -19.8%
15% -34.2% 17% -27.6%
20% -40.7% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses113 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)239 / 241
History coverage235d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $44 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 22 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +48%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$7 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28? May 13 $3 +$7 +212%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $8 −$6 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 28? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on Apri Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on April 27? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 27? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 27? Apr 28 $4 +$6 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on Apri Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 27? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 27? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 27? Apr 27 $3 +$7 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 25? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +104%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 25? Apr 25 $4 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 17m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN SELL 40¢ $23 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 41¢ $24 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 46h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 44d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 53d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 28? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 37¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 37¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 37¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 55d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 4¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 4¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on April 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.24 · official $27.23 (match) · 659 history records