trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -61.4% | -65.0% | 25% | 25% | -47.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -46.5% | -51.6% | 33% | 33% | +3.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -46.5% | -51.6% | 33% | 33% | +3.1% |
| all | 23 | -30.3% | -36.9% | 35% | 30% | -4.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.9% | 30% | -4.6% |
| 10% | -43.0% | 30% | -13.7% |
| 15% | -48.5% | 22% | -22.1% |
| 20% | -53.5% | 17% | -29.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 70¢ | 66¢ | $50 | $47 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $16 | −$4 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $101 | +$55 | +55% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $51 | −$50 | -97% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Jun 05 | $300 | −$269 | -90% |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | Jun 05 | $1,100 | +$617 | +56% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Jan 29 | $2,308 | +$870 | +38% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Dec 25 | $1,762 | +$546 | +31% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | Nov 23 | $414 | −$414 | -100% |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | Sep 07 | $541 | +$654 | +121% |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Aug 06 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | Aug 06 | $94 | +$137 | +145% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Jul 13 | $1,157 | −$653 | -56% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | May 21 | $44 | −$44 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | May 21 | $66 | −$22 | -33% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? | May 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | May 13 | $277 | −$211 | -76% |
| Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4? | Apr 06 | $295 | −$295 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 02 | $268 | +$28 | +10% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 28 | $291 | −$19 | -6% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 25 | $26 | +$6 | +23% |
| Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | Mar 24 | $37 | −$12 | -31% |
| GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? | Dec 23 | $220 | −$183 | -83% |