Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x132a…3e10 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$6
other 24% −$10
politics 11% +$1
sports 7% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 0% -14.2%
≤30d 13 -8.2% -16.9% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -8.2% -16.9% 38% 0% -10.5%
all 47 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -11.1%
10% -23.5% 0% -19.6%
15% -30.9% 0% -27.4%
20% -37.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $66 −$3 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 −$3 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $59 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 28 $2 $0 +3%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 05 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $12 $0 +3%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 -18%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $16 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Evansville vs. Murray State Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Seattle vs. Southern Utah Mar 05 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $28 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $24 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $18 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $31 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $31 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $34 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records