Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1329…fd4d sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-4%) realized −$109 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$59
14 days−$34
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$75
politics 2% −$2
other 1% +$11
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.3% +13.3% 60% 60% +29.1%
≤30d 48 -45.5% -50.7% 23% 23% -50.5%
≤90d 113 -0.7% -10.2% 42% 41% -21.5%
all 140 +9.9% -0.6% 46% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 40% -12.8%
10% -10.1% 37% -21.1%
15% -18.8% 36% -28.7%
20% -26.7% 32% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 76
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage104d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 77¢ 100¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $55 +$28 +50%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$27 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 −$46 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$21 +103%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$24 -62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $42 +$7 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$25 +245%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$21 +408%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $9 +$10 +101%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) May 30 $10 +$10 +100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $20 +$22 +109%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $17 −$10 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 75¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $30 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $82 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $20 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $35 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $6 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $21 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $20 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $50 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $10 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $20 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $41 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $20 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $20 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $20 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 44¢ $14 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $20 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $13 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $10 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $35 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $5 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 25¢ $5 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $26 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.10 · official $65.10 (match) · 387 history records