Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1321…2286 sports 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,510 (-26%) realized −$5,796 · open −$714
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%83W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,638
7 days−$7,638
14 days−$7,638
30 days−$7,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$8,347
crypto 9% −$316
finance 2% −$217
other 2% +$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -57.9% -61.9% 27% 27% -53.7%
≤30d 11 -57.9% -61.9% 27% 27% -53.7%
≤90d 11 -57.9% -61.9% 27% 27% -53.7%
all 193 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 43% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 43% -32.7%
10% -23.8% 42% -39.1%
15% -31.2% 42% -45.0%
20% -37.9% 40% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$131 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5,796
Unrealized−$714
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses83 / 110
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)193 / 194
History coverage239d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner InterActive Philippines 47¢ 0¢ $715 $1 −$714 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $142 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $82 −$77 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $226 +$227 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $155 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $236 −$227 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $791 −$775 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $2,572 +$1,077 +42%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $3,777 −$2,682 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $1,131 +$233 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4,991 −$4,942 -99%
Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5 Nov 13 $72 −$2 -2%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Nov 13 $46 +$54 +117%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5 Nov 13 $47 +$53 +113%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5 Nov 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5 Nov 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Spread: Rockets (-16.5) Nov 13 $50 +$50 +100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Nov 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 238.5 Nov 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5 Nov 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5 Nov 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5 Nov 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-1.5) Nov 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Nov 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Nov 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) Nov 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Nov 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5 Nov 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5 Nov 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Nov 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Hawks vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 Nov 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Nov 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: CA Independiente (-0.5) Nov 12 $30 +$70 +233%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10? Nov 11 $4 +$14 +335%
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-0.5) Nov 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? Nov 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Nov 10 $6 +$3 +54%
Utah vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Nov 10 $79 +$70 +89%
Flames vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Nov 10 $81 +$69 +85%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Nov 10 $90 +$60 +67%
Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Nov 10 $64 +$86 +133%
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 Nov 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Nov 09 $64 −$64 -100%
Kraken vs. Stars: O/U 6.5 Nov 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Stars (-1.5) Nov 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Nov 09 $49 +$51 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5 Nov 09 $47 +$53 +113%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5 Nov 09 $48 +$52 +108%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5) Nov 09 $48 +$52 +108%
Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5 Nov 09 $49 +$51 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $261 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $69 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $183 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 42¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $236 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.76 (match) · 610 history records