Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x131d…9aa1 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$2
other 26% −$4
politics 25% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
world 5% $0
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 151 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage165d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $127 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 20 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 97¢ $36 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 12d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 25d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $39 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $20 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $19 33d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 40d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 43d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $42 127d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $42 127d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $42 127d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $42 127d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 127d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 127d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $3 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $41 127d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $3 127d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $5 127d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $5 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $16 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $25 127d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $40 127d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $40 127d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 127d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 575 history records