Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1318…69af other 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$448 (-9%) realized −$453 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,232
other 23% −$740
crypto 11% −$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 25% -6.9%
≤30d 73 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 27% -9.5%
≤90d 73 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 27% -9.5%
all 73 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 27% -9.5%
10% -34.8% 26% -18.2%
15% -41.1% 26% -26.1%
20% -46.9% 26% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$53 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage26d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $141 $142 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $203 +$222 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 +$273 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 +$213 +105%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $254 +$218 +86%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $18 +$132 +712%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$222 +73%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 +$231 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $204 +$542 +265%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$63 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $141 20m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $425 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $416 10h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 22h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $471 22h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $254 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 33h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 33h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $31 33h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 33h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 33h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 33h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 33h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $304 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.11 · official $206.11 (match) · 125 history records