Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x1317…e50c other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$311per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.7%	-10.1%	0%	0%	-10.1%
≤30d	4	+1.4%	-8.2%	25%	0%	-8.2%
≤90d	4	+1.4%	-8.2%	25%	0%	-8.2%
all	4	+1.4%	-8.2%	25%	0%	-8.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.2%	0%	-8.2%
10%	-17.0%	0%	-17.0%
15%	-25.0%	0%	-25.0%
20%	-32.4%	0%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$3 · ×9.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$23

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage13d

Avg bet$311

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?	Jun 27	$310	−$1	-0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?	Jun 27	$314	−$3	-1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	Jun 14	$308	+$26	+8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Jun 14	$312	−$4	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?	SELL No	96¢	$310	1h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?	BUY No	96¢	$310	1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?	SELL No	91¢	$310	1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$314	2h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	BUY No	92¢	$308	12d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	SELL No	90¢	$3	12d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	SELL No	90¢	$305	12d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$312	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records