Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1317…a680 other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$29
sports 27% −$3
crypto 9% +$29
other 4% −$14
tech 2% −$10
world 1% $0
culture 1% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -60.8% -64.5% 5% 0% -20.5%
≤30d 20 -56.5% -60.6% 10% 5% -18.6%
≤90d 23 -47.5% -52.5% 13% 9% -15.2%
all 65 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 17% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 17% -9.7%
10% -32.9% 11% -18.4%
15% -39.4% 5% -26.2%
20% -45.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage522d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 24 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -7%
Will Ebuka Okorie be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aday Mara be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? Jun 23 $25 −$19 -76%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 202 Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 23? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will "Reverse Sweep" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? Jun 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $19 $0 -2%
Will "Smoke" be said 100+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 07 $11 +$3 +26%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 03 $13 +$5 +37%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -91%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $8 +$4 +54%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Mar 18 $14 +$4 +28%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Mar 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Mar 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $18 +$2 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 22 $21 +$9 +42%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Feb 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Feb 03 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $19 +$1 +5%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jan 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 23 $35 +$2 +6%
US strike on Syria by December 31? Dec 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Dec 15 $28 +$1 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 28 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 05 $94 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Ebuka Okorie be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Ebuka Okorie be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Aday Mara be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 6h
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? BUY No 95¢ $19 10h
Will Ebuka Okorie be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? SELL No 97¢ $30 12h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 97¢ $30 12h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 202 BUY No $0 16h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 96¢ $19 20h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 202 SELL No $0 21h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,140 Week of June 22 202 BUY No $0 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 23? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 22h
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? SELL No 96¢ $6 24h
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? BUY No 96¢ $6 24h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $2 24h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $2 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $48 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $48 29h
Will "Reverse Sweep" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes $0 31h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up $0 34h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records