Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x1316…48a4 sports 615 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,361 (-3%) realized −$17,420 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%364W / 249L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$6,853est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,117
7 days+$1,384
14 days+$2,734
30 days−$14,625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$18,961
other 0% −$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.8% -16.6% 63% 33% -7.2%
≤30d 163 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 48% -15.0%
≤90d 613 -8.1% -16.8% 59% 49% -12.5%
all 613 -8.1% -16.8% 59% 49% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 49% -12.5%
10% -24.8% 44% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 37% -28.6%
20% -38.7% 28% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,083) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$484 vs −$785 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,339
Realized−$17,420
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses364 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$6,853
Open positions2
Markets (closed)613 / 615
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$945
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 59¢ 100¢ $1,180 $1,999 +$819 (+69%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 55¢ 17¢ $1,100 $340 −$760 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) Jun 28 $2,288 +$2,078 +91%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) Jun 27 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,920 +$2,080 +108%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) Jun 27 $1,014 +$970 +96%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2,871 +$29 +1%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) Jun 26 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Jun 26 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3,762 +$38 +1%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5,742 +$58 +1%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5) Jun 25 $1,040 +$960 +92%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,034 −$1,019 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 24 $139 −$139 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $980 −$980 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 24 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $804 −$804 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $1,040 +$960 +92%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 23 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $1,940 +$60 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 21 $1,260 +$740 +59%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $1,760 +$240 +14%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 21 $983 +$1,017 +104%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) Jun 21 $954 −$954 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern Munchen (-8.5) Jun 21 $980 −$980 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $1,757 −$1,757 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 20 $1,076 +$926 +86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,200 −$159 -4%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,020 +$980 +96%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $4,390 +$1,765 +40%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 19 $400 −$399 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $980 −$980 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $2,601 +$3,686 +142%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $2,409 −$1,324 -55%
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) Jun 18 $1,628 +$1,372 +84%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $1,408 +$792 +56%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,725 +$1,067 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $880 +$207 +24%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $1,709 +$1,481 +87%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $1,559 −$1,468 -94%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $1,101 −$1,083 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $700 −$700 -100%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $2,143 +$2,175 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 55¢ $1,115 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $12 4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $4 4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $1,164 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $1,075 7h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $198 7h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $5 7h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $188 7h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $8 11h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $814 11h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $149 16h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $298 16h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $298 16h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $295 16h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $1,902 29h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $18 29h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) BUY Chicago Sky 51¢ $362 35h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) BUY Chicago Sky 50¢ $647 35h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) BUY Chicago Sky 49¢ $5 35h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $1,015 35h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,798 36h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1,073 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $163 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $11 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $259 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $84 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,339.00 · official $2,339.00 (match) · 3480 history records