Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
13 0x1315…a84a sports 388 markets active 10h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$909 (+1%) realized −$45 · open +$954
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%236W / 144L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$470est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days−$524
14 days+$89
30 days+$2,392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$410
sports 38% −$1,853
other 17% −$231
politics 2% +$50
crypto 2% +$1,933
finance 1% +$461
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +16.9% +5.8% 59% 41% -13.0%
≤30d 93 +6.8% -3.4% 59% 45% -2.7%
≤90d 250 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 31% -9.6%
all 380 +3.8% -6.1% 62% 31% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 31% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 20% -18.2%
15% -23.3% 14% -26.1%
20% -30.8% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$590) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$106 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$3,279
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$954
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses236 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$470
Open positions7
Markets (closed)380 / 388
History coverage195d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $885 $1,499 +$614 (+69%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $758 $1,038 +$280 (+37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $200 $400 +$200 (+100%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 54¢ $316 $214 −$102 (-32%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 93¢ 69¢ $126 $94 −$32 (-25%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $158 +$170 +108%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$15 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $752 +$8 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,460 −$810 -56%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,723 +$10 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $214 −$208 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $427 +$73 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $46 +$19 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $565 −$6 -1%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $370 +$130 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $315 −$68 -22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1,497 +$158 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $912 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $21 +$96 +455%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $112 +$402 +359%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $518 −$343 -66%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $50 −$39 -79%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $202 −$4 -2%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $204 +$96 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $112 −$87 -77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,166 +$271 +23%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $32 −$31 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $125 +$59 +47%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $435 +$65 +15%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $15 +$10 +67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $500 +$177 +35%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $140 +$63 +45%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $260 +$20 +8%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $52 +$325 +625%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $269 +$90 +33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $96 −$96 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $33 +$21 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,127 −$13 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $441 +$9 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $32 −$22 -69%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $47 −$26 -56%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 04 $168 +$132 +79%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,323 +$1,858 +140%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 31 $146 +$23 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $200 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $55 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $30 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $158 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $24 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,278.68 · official $3,278.70 (match) · 2243 history records