Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1312…e932 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$804 (-8%) realized −$926 · open +$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%52W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$95
14 days−$1,039
30 days−$1,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$876
sports 38% +$130
other 4% −$45
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 37% -11.7%
≤30d 99 -7.4% -16.3% 48% 39% -24.7%
≤90d 107 -5.8% -14.7% 49% 40% -18.5%
all 108 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 40% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 40% -18.7%
10% -23.6% 33% -26.5%
15% -31.0% 26% -33.6%
20% -37.8% 19% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$55 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$122
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses52 / 56
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions8
Markets (closed)108 / 116
History coverage193d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $200 $269 +$70 (+35%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $100 $205 +$105 (+105%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 23¢ 7¢ $51 $16 −$35 (-69%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 75¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $12 $7 −$6 (-45%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$43 -42%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 −$3 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$11 +49%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$193 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$29 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $32 −$6 -20%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$10 -38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $33 −$27 -82%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$9 -46%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 +$26 +226%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $14 +$18 +128%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 +$33 +246%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 −$8 -66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$6 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $17 +$2 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$42 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$3 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $43 −$7 -16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$15 -31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 +$4 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $38 +$6 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $42 +$12 +29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$4 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $13 7m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 9m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 76¢ $4 9m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $201 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 50¢ $70 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 50¢ $70 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $100 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 53¢ $45 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $100 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 52¢ $19 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $58 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 42¢ $28 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $34 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $69 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $23 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $50 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.86 · official $508.88 (match) · 308 history records