Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1310…b7c2 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-26%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$29
sports 32% −$1
crypto 5% −$4
weather 5% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.4% -6.5% 43% 43% -20.4%
≤30d 21 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 43% -31.2%
≤90d 31 -21.9% -29.4% 39% 32% -38.2%
all 31 -21.9% -29.4% 39% 32% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 32% -38.2%
10% -36.1% 26% -44.2%
15% -42.3% 26% -49.5%
20% -47.9% 13% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage60d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +139%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +130%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $2 +$1 +44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 14 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 30 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 22? Apr 22 $6 $0 +8%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Apr 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $2 53m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 41¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 33¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records