trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun | Jun 09 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 08 | $2 | +$37 | +1775% |
| Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 08 | $2 | −$1 | -26% |
| Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? | Jun 08 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 07 | $47 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | -29% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $5 | +$4 | +76% |
| Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? | Jun 04 | $15 | −$10 | -66% |
| Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 04 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round o | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 03 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the | Jun 02 | $221 | +$14 | +7% |
| Will Iván Cepeda win between 50% and 55% of votes in the first round o | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: May | May 31 | $58 | +$20 | +34% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | May 31 | $16 | −$3 | -16% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 19 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +307.7% | +268.9% | 20% | 20% | +67.7% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +59.9% | +44.6% | 37% | 21% | +0.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +59.9% | +44.6% | 37% | 21% | +0.8% |
| all | 19 | +59.9% | +44.6% | 37% | 21% | +0.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +44.6% | 21% | +0.8% |
| 10% | +30.8% | 16% | -8.8% |
| 15% | +18.2% | 11% | -17.6% |
| 20% | +6.6% | 11% | -25.7% |