Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

13 0x1301…ed65 crypto 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$9 (+21%) realized +$9 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown69%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+15.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+27.6%	+15.4%	33%	33%	+16.9%
≤30d	3	+27.6%	+15.4%	33%	33%	+16.9%
≤90d	3	+27.6%	+15.4%	33%	33%	+16.9%
all	3	+27.6%	+15.4%	33%	33%	+16.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.4%	33%	+16.9%
10%	+4.4%	33%	+5.7%
15%	-5.7%	33%	-4.5%
20%	-14.9%	33%	-13.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$10 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.44 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$9

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown69%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$30	+283%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Up	90¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	31¢	$10	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records