Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x1300…d632 crypto 1443 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+2%) realized +$150 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%858W / 548L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days−$212
14 days+$45
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$427
other 27% −$148
crypto 14% −$79
weather 7% −$78
world 4% −$62
tech 0% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 350 -69.8% -72.7% 16% 15% -16.4%
≤30d 426 -46.8% -51.8% 29% 27% -8.0%
≤90d 1406 -10.7% -19.2% 61% 48% -8.4%
all 1406 -10.7% -19.2% 61% 48% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 48% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 31% -17.2%
15% -34.0% 17% -25.2%
20% -40.4% 13% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses858 / 548
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1406 / 1443
History coverage82d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $300 $274 −$26 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $50 +$21 +41%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$55 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +18%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$33 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$4 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$4 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$45 +89%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $507 +$328 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +77%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$81 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 13m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 63¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN BUY 44¢ $51 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Sp BUY 1¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 29¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 12¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 85¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 19¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 78¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 53¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 16¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 39¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 64¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 46¢ $1 9h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $51 11h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 11h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.17 · official $447.17 · 3135 history records