trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+10%) |
| Cattolica (Doubles): Agostini/Cook vs Baena/Gornes | Agostini/Cook | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $26 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Cattolica (Doubles): Agostini/Cook vs Baena/Gornes | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 08 | $36 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 05 | $2 | +$1 | +54% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 03 | $5 | +$3 | +65% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 01 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 29 | $9 | −$1 | -8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -28.2% | -35.0% | 14% | 14% | -17.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 25% | 25% | -12.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 25% | 25% | -12.3% |
| all | 12 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 25% | 25% | -12.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.6% | 25% | -12.3% |
| 10% | -24.6% | 25% | -20.7% |
| 15% | -31.9% | 17% | -28.4% |
| 20% | -38.5% | 17% | -35.4% |