Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12ff…b34c world 58 markets active 21h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$11
other 23% −$3
politics 11% −$1
economics 3% +$1
tech 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 -0.5% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 45 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 58 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage341d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $75 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $82 +$2 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $158 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 −$2 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $565 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $255 +$5 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $338 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $115 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $156 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $209 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $152 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $261 −$5 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $77 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $161 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $214 −$12 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $151 −$9 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $95 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $74 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $116 +$1 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $53 +$2 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $552 +$7 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 18 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $66 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $75 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $15 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 94¢ $84 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $82 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $83 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $83 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $9 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $66 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $44 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $74 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $75 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $75 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $83 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $83 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $41 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $41 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $83 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $82 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $82 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $82 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $80 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records