Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9.5
score
12 0x12f9…74ba sports 887 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$99,541 (+21%) realized +$99,541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate85%755W / 132L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$2,281est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,237
7 days+$2,985
14 days+$5,010
30 days+$28,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$41,642
sports 43% +$23,024
world 1% −$265
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.7% +9.2% 100% 61% +8.0%
≤30d 274 +18.5% +7.2% 84% 55% +2.4%
≤90d 859 +24.5% +12.7% 85% 58% +2.6%
all 887 +26.8% +14.7% 85% 58% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 58% +2.6%
10% +3.7% 37% -7.2%
15% ← realistic here -6.3% 22% -16.2%
20% -15.5% 15% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$890) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$229 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$99,541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses755 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$2,281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)887 / 887
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$543
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 887 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $910 +$195 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $303 +$28 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$16 +49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $55 +$6 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $467 +$11 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $109 +$6 +5%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,799 +$96 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,778 +$153 +9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,907 +$133 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $702 +$104 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $65 +$15 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $118 +$16 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $228 +$47 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,984 +$78 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,000 +$333 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $61 +$14 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $158 +$4 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $632 +$313 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $917 +$616 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,875 +$689 +37%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $203 +$82 +40%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $121 +$30 +24%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $878 +$549 +63%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $293 +$203 +69%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $1,074 +$731 +68%
Will San Marino vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Jun 05 $766 +$358 +47%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $481 +$872 +181%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $673 +$63 +9%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 05 $543 +$11 +2%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,048 +$34 +3%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $29 +$1 +4%
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $18 +$3 +18%
Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $292 +$219 +75%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $1,254 +$129 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $20 +$3 +16%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $1,000 +$249 +25%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $942 +$58 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $41 +$36 +88%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $121 +$111 +92%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $964 +$43 +4%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $502 +$33 +6%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 May 31 $82 +$12 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $441 +$52 +12%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $620 −$100 -16%
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 31 $3 $0 +6%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,000 +$147 +15%
Will EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 30 $864 −$129 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $1,106 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $331 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $907 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 89¢ $295 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $61 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $55 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $478 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $63 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $359 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $45 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $1,895 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,931 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 93¢ $2,040 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $23 26h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1,799 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 86¢ $1,907 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $60 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $27 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,778 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $807 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $80 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 78¢ $134 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 90¢ $102 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 90¢ $145 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records