Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

12 0x12f8…dc44 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$39 (-8%) realized −$39 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate62%13W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day59.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-8.8%	-17.4%	62%	43%	-15.8%
≤30d	21	-8.8%	-17.4%	62%	43%	-15.8%
≤90d	21	-8.8%	-17.4%	62%	43%	-15.8%
all	21	-8.8%	-17.4%	62%	43%	-15.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover59.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.4%	43%	-15.8%
10% ← realistic here	-25.3%	24%	-23.8%
15%	-32.6%	5%	-31.2%
20%	-39.2%	5%	-37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

31% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$39

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses13 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day59.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$1	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 22	$31	+$9	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 22	$20	+$4	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 22	$41	−$4	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 22	$20	+$6	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 22	$10	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 22	$10	+$2	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 21	$26	$0	-1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$3	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$1	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 21	$41	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 21	$20	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$2	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 21	$15	−$14	-89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 21	$31	+$6	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 21	$31	+$16	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 21	$51	−$21	-41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 21	$72	−$20	-28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Down	21¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Down	92¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Down	30¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	SELL Up	90¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$3	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$8	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$12	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$10	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$16	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$21	11h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	66¢	$20	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$13	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$10	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$11	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$10	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$17	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$20	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records