Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12f7…e5e9 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
other 34% +$2
sports 19% −$16
politics 9% −$1
finance 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 39 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 3% -9.7%
all 48 -1.9% -11.2% 31% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage529d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 $0 -19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $71 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $88 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $15 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $54 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $35 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $35 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $13 +$1 +8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $339 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $196 −$4 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $252 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $277 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 17 $1 $0 -2%
Tennessee Tech vs. Little Rock Feb 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Jan 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 04 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 19¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 19¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $33 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $9 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $23 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $32 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $32 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.61 · official $32.95 (match) · 184 history records