Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12f3…a48b politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% $0
world 24% −$1
politics 22% $0
sports 10% +$2
crypto 7% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 44% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 44% 0% -9.8%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage304d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $30 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $148 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 10 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $20 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $24 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $24 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $12 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $1 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $14 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $27 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $31 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records