Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12ed…c9b4
other · 58 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,624 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,684 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$288
Realized+$1,684
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day196.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 4 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$775
7 days+$347
14 days+$580
30 days+$1,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $261 $248 −$13 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4,277 +$390 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $450 −$17 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $140 +$21 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $230 −$12 -5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,280 −$104 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,615 +$487 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $372 +$46 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,622 −$741 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,212 +$250 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $350 −$46 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$10 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,760 +$124 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,893 −$137 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $76 −$18 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $933 −$173 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $964 +$97 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,056 −$65 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3,608 +$247 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $599 −$114 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $318 −$19 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $861 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,629 +$194 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $784 −$48 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $664 +$175 +26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,566 +$249 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,362 +$785 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $825 −$557 -68%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1,232 −$195 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $948 −$285 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $513 −$58 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2,198 +$117 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1,736 +$68 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $451 −$17 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $586 −$61 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,196 +$73 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,718 +$305 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $408 −$83 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 28 $73 −$11 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $325 −$19 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2,082 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $451 +$409 +91%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $1 +$7 +524%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$1,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 0m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 0m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $241 17m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $33 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 19m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 20m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $51 20m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $19 20m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $35 27m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $26 28m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $127 28m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $20 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $172 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $39 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 30m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $36 33m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $37 34m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $105 35m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $249 35m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $95 36m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $56 37m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 38m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 38m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $51 39m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $491 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 18% -6.4%
≤30d 54 +20.1% +8.6% 54% 26% -6.0%
≤90d 54 +20.1% +8.6% 54% 26% -6.0%
all 54 +20.1% +8.6% 54% 26% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover196.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 26% -6.0%
10% -1.8% 19% -15.0%
15% ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -23.2%
20% -19.9% 6% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.45 · official $288.45 (match) · 3500 history records