Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x12ec…3ce7 crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$378 (+34%) realized +$278 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 57L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$17
14 days+$219
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$298
other 7% −$58
sports 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +8.8% -1.5% 30% 30% -6.3%
≤30d 92 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% +10.9%
≤90d 92 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% +10.9%
all 92 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 38% +10.9%
10% +5.6% 36% +0.3%
15% -4.6% 35% -9.4%
20% -14.0% 34% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$10 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$278
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 14¢ 23¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+64%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $26 $3 −$23 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$32 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$36 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$28 +178%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$35 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$69 +223%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$100 +452%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $56 −$52 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$13 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $24 −$19 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$17 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$28 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$11 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$42 +399%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$34 +538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$18 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $12 +$11 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 14¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.94 · official $20.95 (match) · 353 history records