Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12ec…41ae sports 271 markets active 7h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156,362 (+6%) realized +$121,046 · open +$35,316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%105W / 167L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,255per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$21,273est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$53,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$193,457
other 43% +$261,436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -48.1% -53.0% 25% 25% +3.1%
≤30d 31 +35.5% +22.6% 55% 55% +6.6%
≤90d 272 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 36% -8.3%
all 272 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 36% -8.3%
10% -22.4% 35% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.9% 35% -25.1%
20% -36.8% 34% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$15,636) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,542 vs −$7,690 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$53,523
Realized+$121,046
Unrealized+$35,316
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses105 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$21,273
Open positions1
Markets (closed)272 / 271
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$9,255
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 100¢ $18,207 $53,523 +$35,316 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 217.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21,950 +$23,661 +108%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $18,060 −$18,060 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 04 $2,890 +$5,869 +203%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $9,443 −$9,414 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12,576 −$12,506 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,237 +$1,139 +92%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5,714 −$5,714 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,248 −$1,248 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,882 +$2,301 +122%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 23 $1,263 −$1,263 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,218 +$812 +67%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,274 −$1,274 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1,993 +$1,763 +88%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1,861 +$1,404 +75%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $1,802 −$1,802 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $186 +$282 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $9,360 +$10,140 +108%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $19,785 +$23,225 +117%
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx May 18 $7,268 +$14,934 +206%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $23,160 +$25,090 +108%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 17 $8,262 −$8,107 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $13,041 +$25,020 +192%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $52,371 −$52,371 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $41,640 +$45,021 +108%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4,271 +$9,888 +232%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,486 +$4,453 +300%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $37,800 −$37,800 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $35,703 −$35,654 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $24,722 +$54,948 +222%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $27,936 −$27,936 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $6,435 +$9,981 +155%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $32,480 −$31,070 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $15,080 +$3,310 +22%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $6,770 +$7,635 +113%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $32,802 +$49,203 +150%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $42 +$6 +15%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 16 $1,825 −$1,297 -71%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $26,137 −$26,137 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $94 −$92 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 14 $182 +$168 +92%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 14 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $20,513 −$19,864 -97%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $22,000 −$22,000 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 13 $263 −$260 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $373 −$373 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $2 +$3 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $2,601 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $5,202 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $10,404 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 100¢ $22,794 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $2,942 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $18,906 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $28 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $9 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $19 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $9 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $2 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $3,612 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $7,224 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $36 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $21 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $7 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $6 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $7 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $22 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $145 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $1 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $257 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,523.19 · official $53,523.19 (match) · 3500 history records