Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x12ec…c53a sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%26W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1
other 46% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses26 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $50 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $39 19h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 22h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 38h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $17 43h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $33 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 47h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Pegula 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $50 3d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 55 history records