Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12eb…5f50
sports · 77 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$16 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses50 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage25d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$2
14 days+$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 65¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 74¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump kiss by May 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? No 60¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $23 +$6 +26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $22 +$1 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 07 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$4 +197%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1 $0 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $1 $0 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026? May 31 $14 $0 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026? May 30 $14 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +62%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $12 +$1 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $2 $0 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $10 $0 -1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $9 $0 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $9 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% +$6
crypto 21% +$6
weather 15% −$1
politics 13% +$4
other 4% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 54¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 59¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 73¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 60¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $23 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $16 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Angels 81¢ $8 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 68¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 86¢ $3 5d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY New York Mets 96¢ $5 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 91¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 91¢ $3 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $22 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.1% -27.7% 53% 33% -8.3%
≤30d 72 -4.8% -13.8% 69% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 72 -4.8% -13.8% 69% 40% -7.1%
all 72 -4.8% -13.8% 69% 40% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 40% -7.1%
10% -22.1% 29% -16.0%
15% -29.6% 12% -24.1%
20% -36.5% 8% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.16 · official $25.19 (match) · 155 history records