Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
12 0x12eb…2bdb crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate88%58W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.8% -29.3% 67% 67% -14.4%
≤30d 3 -21.8% -29.3% 67% 67% -14.4%
≤90d 3 -21.8% -29.3% 67% 67% -14.4%
all 66 +27.4% +15.2% 88% 39% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 39% -9.6%
10% +4.2% 11% -18.3%
15% -5.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -15.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$98 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses58 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage123d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 03 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 03 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 03 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 03 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 03 $118 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 03 $80 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 03 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 03 $40 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 03 $45 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 03 $277 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 02 $347 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 02 $354 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 02 $336 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 02 $333 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 21 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 21 $99 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 21 $383 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 21 $362 +$21 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 21 $319 +$43 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 21 $307 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 20 $97 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 20 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 20 $262 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 20 $237 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 20 $281 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 20 $244 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 20 $92 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 20 $200 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 20 $200 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 20 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 20 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 20 $120 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 20 $164 +$18 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $60 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $80 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $60 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $118 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $277 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $45 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $40 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $354 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $347 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $336 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $333 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $100 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $105 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $99 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.98 · official $141.98 (match) · 187 history records