Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12ea…3818 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate10%23W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$3
world 17% $0
crypto 17% +$2
politics 12% −$1
tech 11% −$1
finance 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 8% -10.0%
≤30d 50 -1.9% -11.3% 6% 2% -11.3%
≤90d 141 -2.7% -12.0% 8% 1% -11.9%
all 238 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -11.2%
10% -19.9% 1% -19.7%
15% -27.7% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses23 / 215
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage221d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be at least 180? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 02 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 27 $1 $0 -2%
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? May 27 $1 $0 -3%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? May 23 $1 $0 -13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.4B? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tête de femme by Picasso sell for $47M or more? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $1 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $1 3d
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be at least 180? SELL No 95¢ $1 3d
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 96¢ $1 3d
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 98¢ $1 3d
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be at least 180? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 97¢ $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? SELL No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6d
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 7d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 90¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 518 history records