Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12ea…a131
weather · 360 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$166 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$157 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$90
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses243 / 111
Open positions20
Markets (closed)354 / 360
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day784.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 20 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$157
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 97¢ 95¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 98¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? No 93¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? No 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? No 66¢ 56¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? No 89¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? No 94¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? No 88¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? No 67¢ 59¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? No 79¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? No 68¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 46¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 41¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 18? No 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 18? No 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 21? No 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23? No 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 18? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 18? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 21? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -208%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23? Jun 13 $3 −$4 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$164
other 3% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 63¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 80¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 48¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 76¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 51¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 89¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 10% -7.3%
≤30d 354 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 10% -7.3%
≤90d 354 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 10% -7.3%
all 354 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 10% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover784.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 10% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 7% -16.2%
15% -23.1% 5% -24.3%
20% -30.6% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.25 · official $90.25 (match) · 3500 history records