Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12e5…d6b9 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$6
politics 26% +$3
other 21% +$8
sports 12% −$4
finance 6% −$12
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 29 -2.7% -11.9% 34% 0% -10.4%
all 44 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 9% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage531d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $28 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$4 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $64 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $118 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $61 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $129 −$12 -9%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $128 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $231 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $232 $0 -0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $6 −$3 -44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $234 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $23 $0 -0%
Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota State Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
UT Martin vs. SIU-Edwardsville Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana above $190 on February 14? Mar 20 $17 +$6 +35%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $10 +$7 +75%
Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? Feb 03 $6 +$3 +59%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $3 $0 +6%
Will Ohio State win by 6 or more points? Jan 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $26 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $26 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $28 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $28 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $32 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $20 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records