Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12e5…e3cd crypto 2215 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$2,346 (-41%) realized −$2,346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%852W / 614L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day145.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$1,509
other 23% +$445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 570 -29.5% -36.2% 31% 31% -38.7%
≤30d 1466 +41.6% +28.1% 58% 57% +12.5%
≤90d 1466 +41.6% +28.1% 58% 57% +12.5%
all 1466 +41.6% +28.1% 58% 57% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.1% 57% +12.5%
10% ← realistic here +15.9% 56% +1.8%
15% +4.7% 55% -8.1%
20% -5.6% 54% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses852 / 614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1466 / 2215
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day145.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1466 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 27m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 47m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records