Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x12e5…24f5 crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+4%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%83W / 6L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$34
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 12% -7.0%
≤30d 87 +1.8% -7.9% 94% 17% -7.0%
≤90d 89 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 17% -7.1%
all 89 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 17% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 17% -7.1%
10% -17.6% 4% -16.0%
15% -25.6% 3% -24.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses83 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage85d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$10 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$5 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $36 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $26 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $28 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $21 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $32 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $24 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $32 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records