Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12e4…4ccd crypto 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,891 (-4%) realized −$2,891 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%184W / 315L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 524d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$5,136
world 6% +$20
tech 2% +$10
other 1% −$3
politics 1% −$68
sports 0% +$1
weather 0% +$4
economics 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.1% -5.8% 27% 27% -0.2%
≤30d 32 -14.5% -22.6% 25% 25% -9.0%
≤90d 115 -33.1% -39.5% 28% 27% -13.7%
all 499 -12.7% -21.0% 37% 29% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 29% -15.2%
10% -28.6% 23% -23.3%
15% -35.5% 18% -30.7%
20% -41.8% 14% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$72 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,891
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses184 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)499 / 499
History coverage524d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 499 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1,211 +$1,045 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $384 −$366 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $255 −$242 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$100 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $230 +$98 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $136 +$378 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $313 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $578 +$356 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $156 +$194 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $362 −$351 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $458 +$653 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $61 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $318 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 04 $199 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $218 −$30 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $91 −$86 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $98 −$40 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $113 +$169 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Jun 04 $243 +$235 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8PM ET May 29 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8AM ET May 20 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 05 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 05 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 05 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 05 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 05 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 05 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 05 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9AM ET May 05 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 05 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 04 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 02 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 02 $24 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 02 $89 −$60 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $714 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $470 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1,072 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $788 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $380 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $44 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $77 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $29 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $329 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $42 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $81 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $37 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $127 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $119 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $87 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $360 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3160 history records