Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12e1…51f6
weather · 874 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,163 +53%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,248 · open −$84
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized+$1,248
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses52 / 443
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions59
Markets (closed)495 / 874
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day185.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 59 History 495 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days−$210
14 days+$516
30 days+$1,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 28? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 24? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 21? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 3? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 8? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 16? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 28? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on May 21? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on May 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on April 8? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 25? Jun 13 $1 −$6 -406%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% +$1,788
other 3% +$45
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -37.4% -43.3% 4% 4% -39.3%
≤30d 495 +48.5% +34.4% 11% 11% +71.8%
≤90d 495 +48.5% +34.4% 11% 11% +71.8%
all 495 +48.5% +34.4% 11% 11% +71.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover185.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.4% 11% +71.8%
10% ← realistic here +21.5% 11% +55.4%
15% +9.8% 11% +40.4%
20% -1.0% 10% +26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.87 · official $71.78 (match) · 3500 history records