Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12e0…d6f8
other · 306 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$55 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses94 / 199
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)293 / 306
History coverage146d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%
Chart Positions 13 History 293 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$171
14 days+$251
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $72 $82 +$10 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$53 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$47 -93%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $138 −$50 -36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $204 +$134 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $155 +$25 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $53 +$5 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $69 −$6 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $81 +$132 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $38 −$13 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $50 −$12 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $235 −$79 -33%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 04 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $63 +$64 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $94 −$26 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $60 +$45 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $98 −$22 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $53 +$21 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $121 +$151 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $56 +$220 +392%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $7 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $44 −$37 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $55 −$40 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $30 −$24 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $65 −$18 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $47 +$30 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $59 +$18 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $82 +$77 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $52 +$63 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $22 +$24 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% +$121
world 1% −$1
politics 1% −$25
crypto 0% −$34
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $106 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $39 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 9h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 17h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.1% -26.8% 29% 19% +5.8%
≤30d 60 -27.9% -34.8% 28% 23% +10.0%
≤90d 161 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 22% -14.1%
all 293 -14.3% -22.5% 32% 29% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 29% -8.8%
10% -29.9% 24% -17.5%
15% -36.7% 21% -25.5%
20% -42.9% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.03 · official $174.03 (match) · 2657 history records