Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12df…6a3d
crypto · 29 markets active 14h ago
0.0score
−$504 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open −$464
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$639
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$464
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)22 / 29
Avg bet$55
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 7 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $512 $504 −$8 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $150 $47 −$103 (-69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? No 8¢ 4¢ $80 $45 −$35 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $60 $29 −$31 (-52%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? No 13¢ 1¢ $255 $14 −$241 (-95%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? No 15¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 0¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? No 6¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 0¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? No 4¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$17 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $96 +$40 +42%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $39 −$38 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $22 −$21 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $128 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $66 +$175 +267%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$9 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$10 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$459
other 8% +$7
world 3% −$52
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $160 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $160 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $160 13h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 8¢ $80 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $70 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $2 39h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $50 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL No 0¢ $3 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $18 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $135 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $8 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $7 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $56 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +56.6% +41.7% 36% 32% -18.8%
≤30d 22 +56.6% +41.7% 36% 32% -18.8%
≤90d 22 +56.6% +41.7% 36% 32% -18.8%
all 22 +56.6% +41.7% 36% 32% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.7% 32% -18.8%
10% +28.1% 27% -26.6%
15% +15.8% 27% -33.7%
20% +4.4% 23% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.72 · official $638.72 (match) · 96 history records