Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x12dd…9a0c politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,372 (-2%) realized −$2,374 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%25W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$54
other 37% −$61
sports 16% −$2,267
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$2
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -22.7% -30.0% 6% 0% -13.3%
all 125 -4.5% -13.6% 20% 9% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 9% -11.5%
10% -21.8% 9% -19.9%
15% -29.4% 7% -27.7%
20% -36.3% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,285) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$928
Realized−$2,374
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage149d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $703 $705 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $224 $224 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $298 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $819 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,305 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,244 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,983 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,994 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $514 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,230 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,909 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,650 −$5 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $3,469 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $693 +$1 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 28 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,011 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-06? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Kraken vs. Blues Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $206 19h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 23h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $262 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $262 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $298 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $298 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $626 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $627 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $703 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,179 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,181 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,298 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,300 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,094 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,095 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,355 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,357 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,283 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,285 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,280 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,282 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,122 20d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,123 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,285 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,287 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $928.35 · official $928.35 (match) · 423 history records